Articles
B. TRENDS IN TROPICAL FRUIT PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND TRADE
Although more than 60% of the increase foreseen (about 60,000 tonnes over the 1995 figure) was to be absorbed by developed countries, mainly in Europe and North America, the Far East and Latin America and the Caribbean will remain the two biggest consuming regions with an estimated intake of around 11.4 million tonnes and 9.1 million tonnes respectively.
Fresh orange consumption in developing countries is projected to reach approximately 25.5 million tonnes; increased consumption is most likely to occur in orange-producing countries of the Far East and Latin America.
The relatively modest projected increase in global fresh-orange trade of 31,000 tonnes reflects reduction of import tariffs for fresh oranges, which are to occur between 1995 and 2000 in some developed and developing countries and which will encourage import demand.
World demand for processed oranges is likely to increase by 609,000 tonnes to 24.9 million tonnes by 2000. Nearly 90% of this increase is expected to accure to developed countries, mainly in North America and Europe, the two biggest consuming regions.
Global trade for processed orange products was to reach 17.3 million tonnes, the relatively modest increase of 324,000 tonnes occurring by 2000.
Global demand for fresh grapefruit is projected at around 3.8 million tonnes in 2000, the increase being absorbed largely by countries in the Far East (15,000 tonnes), Europe (13,000 tonnes), Latin America and the Caribbean (13,000 tonnes). In Latin America and the Caribbean, fresh-grapefruit consumption is likely to grow by around 10,000 tonnes to some 438,000 tonnes.
Most growth in fresh-grapefruit imports is projected for developed countries, where purchases are expected to reach nearly 1.27 million tonnes by 2000.
Global demand for processed grapefruit is projected to grow by 57,000 tonnes by 2000. Nearly 90% of the increase is expected to be consumed in developed countries: Europe and North America, the two biggest consuming regions are expected to absorb about 1.1 million tonnes each. Processed grapefruit trade is also expected to grow slightly, by 52,000 tonnes, and reach 1.8 million tonnes.
Imports are projected to increase most strongly in Europe (42,000 tonnes). Growth in exports of processed grapefruit will originate mainly in North America: exports from the USA, accounting for more than half of all internationally-traded supplies, are projected to rise by 33,000 tonnes to nearly 900,000 tonnes.
Smaller increases will occur in Israel and Latin America and the Caribbean (Argentina, Brazil and Cuba).
Tangerine turnout is expected to increase slightly in all regions of the developing world, but the biggest rise, of 18,000 tonnes, will originate in the Far East, particularly in Pakistan and China. Global demand for tangerine is projected to grow by 139,000 tonnes to 9.65 million tonnes by 2000, with more than three-quarters of the increase being absorbed by Japan and countries in Europe and North America. tangerine imports are expected to increase mostly in Europe by 28,000 tonnes and particularly in markets of France, Germany and United Kingdom.
Expected growth in tangerine exports