Articles
GUAVA PRICES COMPONENT ANALYSIS IN THE MUNICIPAL MARKET OF JUAZEIRO, BA, BRAZIL
Article number
959_27
Pages
217 – 223
Language
English
Abstract
The guava (Psidium guajava L.), belongs to the Myrtaceae family.
Originally from America, it finds in Brazil quite favorable conditions for fruit production.
Among the producing regions, the northeast and the southeast regions are the main producers.
In the southeast region, the State of São Paulo is the greatest producer while in the northeast, State of Pernambuco, is the main producer, followed by the State of Bahia.
In these regions the cultivar Paluma is the most cropped.
São Paulo has its production addressed to the fresh fruit market and industry, while the guava production from the States of Pernambuco and Bahia is processed mainly to juice and pulp.
This is the decisive factor to the price difference between the two markets, about three times higher in the southeast than in the northeast, due to production costs.
The study aimed to understand the behavior of guava historical prices in the municipal market of Juazeiro, State of Bahia, considered the largest of the Lower Middle São Francisco River Valley, which centralizes the commercialization in the area.
The data were deflated by the General Index Price (IGP-DI) and they refer to the January 2005 to December 2011 period and are available in the site of the Secretaria de Agricultura, Irrigaçãoe ReformaAgrária (SEAGRI) of the State of Bahia.
The price components trend, cycle, seasonality and volatility were analyzed through estimates of ARIMA, ARCH and of spectral density models.
The results of the log-lineal regression against time indicate a tendency for price increasing and the existence of seasonal cycles related to fruit offer.
High volatility was not found in the series.
Originally from America, it finds in Brazil quite favorable conditions for fruit production.
Among the producing regions, the northeast and the southeast regions are the main producers.
In the southeast region, the State of São Paulo is the greatest producer while in the northeast, State of Pernambuco, is the main producer, followed by the State of Bahia.
In these regions the cultivar Paluma is the most cropped.
São Paulo has its production addressed to the fresh fruit market and industry, while the guava production from the States of Pernambuco and Bahia is processed mainly to juice and pulp.
This is the decisive factor to the price difference between the two markets, about three times higher in the southeast than in the northeast, due to production costs.
The study aimed to understand the behavior of guava historical prices in the municipal market of Juazeiro, State of Bahia, considered the largest of the Lower Middle São Francisco River Valley, which centralizes the commercialization in the area.
The data were deflated by the General Index Price (IGP-DI) and they refer to the January 2005 to December 2011 period and are available in the site of the Secretaria de Agricultura, Irrigaçãoe ReformaAgrária (SEAGRI) of the State of Bahia.
The price components trend, cycle, seasonality and volatility were analyzed through estimates of ARIMA, ARCH and of spectral density models.
The results of the log-lineal regression against time indicate a tendency for price increasing and the existence of seasonal cycles related to fruit offer.
High volatility was not found in the series.
Authors
J.R.F. de Lima, J.L.P. Araújo , J.E. Flori
Keywords
trend, cycle, seasonality, volatility, ARIMA, ARCH, spectral density
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