Articles
A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF PAST AND PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE ON SOUR CHERRY PRODUCTION IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE USA
Article number
803_15
Pages
123 – 130
Language
English
Abstract
Climate-based models simulating the growth, development, and potential productivity of sour cherry have been developed in order to determine the impacts of climate in past and projected future time frames on production areas in the Great Lakes region of the USA. A model of the phenological development of sour cherry flower buds was developed driven by growing degree-day accumulations estimated from maximum and minimum temperature.
An empirical yield function was also developed from historical production data available for western Lower Michigan for the period 19822001. Following the examination of many potential climate-related influences, three factors were identified as primary determinants of yield: winter/cold injury, number of wet days during pollination, and the amount of precipitation preceding the end of the previous growing season.
Time series of growth and yield were simulated at three sites across the region for historical time frames while for projected future time frames only preliminary analysis of growth and development were attempted.
The simulations for the historical period suggest that phenological development (i.e., spring development) has occurred earlier in the last decades and that regional yields have been rather stable over time with only a slight increase in the last couple of decades.
Projected future temperature scenarios suggest that the percentage of viable flower buds after last spring frost will be comparable to the present.
However, the range of possible outcomes from the different scenarios suggests a much larger window of possibilities (i.e., varying from -70% to +30% of viable flowers in the northwest location of Maple City).
An empirical yield function was also developed from historical production data available for western Lower Michigan for the period 19822001. Following the examination of many potential climate-related influences, three factors were identified as primary determinants of yield: winter/cold injury, number of wet days during pollination, and the amount of precipitation preceding the end of the previous growing season.
Time series of growth and yield were simulated at three sites across the region for historical time frames while for projected future time frames only preliminary analysis of growth and development were attempted.
The simulations for the historical period suggest that phenological development (i.e., spring development) has occurred earlier in the last decades and that regional yields have been rather stable over time with only a slight increase in the last couple of decades.
Projected future temperature scenarios suggest that the percentage of viable flower buds after last spring frost will be comparable to the present.
However, the range of possible outcomes from the different scenarios suggests a much larger window of possibilities (i.e., varying from -70% to +30% of viable flowers in the northwest location of Maple City).
Authors
C. Zavalloni, J.A. Andresen, J.R. Black, J.A. Winkler, G. Guentchev, K. Piromsopa, A. Pollyea, J.M. Bisanz
Keywords
Prunus cerasus L., tart cherry, phenology model, regional yield model, Michigan, climate change, downscaling
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