DETERMINING INFLUENCING FACTORS OF HARDY ORNAMENTAL NURSERY STOCK (HONS) SALES

The nursery stock industry has many product lines whose demand varies seasonally.
The aim of the study reported was to match the time of supply of container grown HONS (Hardy Ornamental Nursery Stock) to the period of customer demand.
The sales patterns of selected nursery stock lines plants (Lavatera olbia ‘Rosea’, Ceanothus ‘Blue Mound’, Clematis ‘Nelly Moser’, x Cupressocyparis leylandii ‘Castlewellan’, Choisya ‘Sundance’) were determined using historical data from a leading garden centre chain in the UK. The factors which influence changes in weekly sales were determined by the development of models for each plant using backward regression analysis.
The components for each model which affected the timing of demand were found to include price promotions, public holidays, seasons, flowering time and to a lesser extent weather.
The model for the evergreen shrub, x Cupressocyparis leylandii ‘Castlewellan’ was found to be different from those of spring and summer flowering plants.
The relative importance of each of the model components was discussed.

XXV International Horticultural Congress, Part 14: Horticultural Economics at Micro and Macro Level, International Trade and Marketing, International Cooperative Programs, Relations between Research, Development, Extension and Education

U. Wermund, H. Wainwright

backward regression, demand, Hardy Ornamental Nursery Stock, modelling, supply

https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2000.524.8