Fruit growth modelling under drought – a mechanistic turgor-based approach for olive (Olea europaea)

Olive (Olea europaea L.) production in Mediterranean regions is increasingly challenged by water scarcity, necessitating grower-supporting models capable predicting fruit growth under drought conditions.
We developed a mechanistic, turgor-driven growth model that integrates commonly available orchard sensor data: sap flow, meteorological variables, and fruit diameter measurements, alongside a simplified soil water balance submodel.
The model was calibrated over a 7.5-week period both for well-watered (WW) and drought-stressed (DS) treatments in a commercial super-high-density orchard.
Despite static parameterization, the model accurately simulated olive growth under WW conditions (average RMSE=0.106 mm, n=5) and captured overall growth trends under DS conditions (average RMSE=0.196 mm, n=5). These findings highlight the potential of sensor-based mechanistic models to support precision irrigation and yield prediction in water-limited environments.

XI International Symposium on Irrigation of Horticultural Crops

S. Verbeke, V. Hernandez-Santana, J. Coussement, A. Diaz-Espejo, K. Steppe

turgor-driven growth, van den Honert, sap flow, sensors, irrigation, mechanistic models

https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2026.1468.26