Articles
Planning for a range of scenarios – how can climate science inform practical adaptation decisions for irrigators?
Article number
1468_4
Pages
23 – 30
Language
English
Abstract
Climate change is reshaping irrigation demand across south-eastern Australia, with winegrape production in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) facing rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and intensifying evaporative demand.
Yet climate models present divergent futures for the MDB, some hotter and drier, others warmer and wetter, creating uncertainty for irrigators and planners.
To address this, we modeled irrigation water requirements for winegrapes at Griffith (NSW) and Mildura (Victoria) using a water balance approach, comparing historical demand (1995-2024) with projections for 2035-2069 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) across 10 downscaled CMIP6 climate model configurations.
Representative low, medium, and high-demand futures were selected to illustrate the range of plausible outcomes.
Results show that irrigation demand extremes – years exceeding historical maxima – are expected to become far more frequent by mid-century, with some scenarios projecting exceedances in most years.
Importantly, these extremes are likely to occur in multi-year clusters, compounding stress on water supplies, vine health, and financial resilience.
By framing projections against drought experiences such as the Millennium and 2017-2020 droughts, we translate complex climate data into actions for irrigators.
We show how adaptation planning can be staged and flexible.
Immediate measures such as precision irrigation, soil improvement, and monitoring systems deliver benefits under all scenarios, while larger investments – expanded storage, additional entitlements, alternative water sources – are triggered only if conditions track toward medium- or high-demand futures.
This staged approach avoids stranded assets while preserving the capacity to scale up as evidence accumulates.
Our case study demonstrates how climate science can inform practical irrigation decisions despite uncertainty, offering a framework that integrates scenario analysis with experiential communication to support resilient viticulture and water management in the Murray-Darling Basin.
Yet climate models present divergent futures for the MDB, some hotter and drier, others warmer and wetter, creating uncertainty for irrigators and planners.
To address this, we modeled irrigation water requirements for winegrapes at Griffith (NSW) and Mildura (Victoria) using a water balance approach, comparing historical demand (1995-2024) with projections for 2035-2069 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) across 10 downscaled CMIP6 climate model configurations.
Representative low, medium, and high-demand futures were selected to illustrate the range of plausible outcomes.
Results show that irrigation demand extremes – years exceeding historical maxima – are expected to become far more frequent by mid-century, with some scenarios projecting exceedances in most years.
Importantly, these extremes are likely to occur in multi-year clusters, compounding stress on water supplies, vine health, and financial resilience.
By framing projections against drought experiences such as the Millennium and 2017-2020 droughts, we translate complex climate data into actions for irrigators.
We show how adaptation planning can be staged and flexible.
Immediate measures such as precision irrigation, soil improvement, and monitoring systems deliver benefits under all scenarios, while larger investments – expanded storage, additional entitlements, alternative water sources – are triggered only if conditions track toward medium- or high-demand futures.
This staged approach avoids stranded assets while preserving the capacity to scale up as evidence accumulates.
Our case study demonstrates how climate science can inform practical irrigation decisions despite uncertainty, offering a framework that integrates scenario analysis with experiential communication to support resilient viticulture and water management in the Murray-Darling Basin.
Authors
J.R. Lawson, D. Allingham, B. Ellis, R. Young, J.M. Kelley
Keywords
climate change, climate adaptation, robust decision-making, viticulture, water
Groups involved
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