ESTIMATION OF THE CONFIDENCE BAND OF BACTERIAL GROWTH SIMULATION THE SYMPREVIUS APPROACH

Predictive microbiology can be divided into two groups of models, named primary and secondary models.
Primary models describe the evolution of the bacterial population with time.
These models use parameters which may vary as the environmental factors change.
Secondary models describe how those parameters vary with the environmental factors.
Most models (primary and secondary) are non linear.
They are fitted by minimising root sum of square (RSS) and confidence limits of parameters are estimated according to non linear methods as bootstrap.
Contrary to linear models where standard methods are applied, parameters of non linear models can be estimated by several method which leads to different results.
This work aims at describing the methods proposed by Sym’Previus to calculate the confidence band of simulated growth curves, taken into account the intraspecies variability and the uncertainty of models.

III International Symposium on Applications of Modelling as an Innovative Technology in the Agri-Food Chain; MODEL-IT

Y. Moreau, O. Ouvert, D. Thuault

Predictive microbiology, confidence bands, intraspecies variability, uncertainty, growth simulation

https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2005.674.53