Articles
Viability of extra-late almond cultivars from CEBAS-CSIC in cold areas of the western US in future climatic scenarios
Article number
1406_65
Pages
465 – 470
Language
English
Abstract
Global warming-induced climate change is causing notable shifts in the geographical distribution of crops cultivation toward higher latitudes.
Nevertheless, several cooler regions in the western United States (North California, Oregon, Idaho) are expected to experience unfavorable climatic conditions during the mid-21st century, particularly due to elevated frost risks.
This study aims to evaluate the potential suitability of CEBAS-CSIC extra-late flowering almond cultivars, namely ‘Makako’ and ‘Penta’, for cultivation in these regions.
The assessment is conducted through the examination of three agroclimatic parameters: chill accumulation, heat accumulation and frost risk.
Utilizing gridded surface meteorological data for the western United States and a set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), we appraise the cultivation suitability of the aforementioned extra-late cultivars, along with the well-known ‘Nonpareil’ cultivar, based on the aforementioned metrics, within the time frame of 2025-2064 and considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The findings indicate that, in contrast to ‘Nonpareil’, the extra-late cultivars exhibit potential suitability for selected cold cultivation regions in the western United States, primarily attributable to their elevated chill requirements, which delay flowering and mitigate damage caused by late frosts.
Nevertheless, several cooler regions in the western United States (North California, Oregon, Idaho) are expected to experience unfavorable climatic conditions during the mid-21st century, particularly due to elevated frost risks.
This study aims to evaluate the potential suitability of CEBAS-CSIC extra-late flowering almond cultivars, namely ‘Makako’ and ‘Penta’, for cultivation in these regions.
The assessment is conducted through the examination of three agroclimatic parameters: chill accumulation, heat accumulation and frost risk.
Utilizing gridded surface meteorological data for the western United States and a set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), we appraise the cultivation suitability of the aforementioned extra-late cultivars, along with the well-known ‘Nonpareil’ cultivar, based on the aforementioned metrics, within the time frame of 2025-2064 and considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The findings indicate that, in contrast to ‘Nonpareil’, the extra-late cultivars exhibit potential suitability for selected cold cultivation regions in the western United States, primarily attributable to their elevated chill requirements, which delay flowering and mitigate damage caused by late frosts.
Authors
J.A. Egea, L.E. Parker, J. López-Alcolea, F. Dicenta
Keywords
almond, flowering time, risk of frost, new cultivars, global warming, cultivation suitability
Groups involved
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