Articles
VALIDATION OF PHENOLOGY MODELS FOR PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE NAVEL ORANGEWORM AMEYLOIS TRANSITELLA (WALKER) IN CALIFORNIA ALMOND ORCHARDS.
Article number
470_74
Pages
525 – 533
Language
Abstract
Five approaches for phenological prediction of first egg laying by first and second generation Ameylois transitella (Walker) adults were validated using egg trapping data from multiple years and production areas in California.
Two linear deterministic models, one incorporating a horizontal upper developmental cutoff and one incorporating a vertical upper developmental cutoff were evaluated, as were 2 linear models incorporating a stochastic element and a nonlinear approximation which used developmental rate data directly.
All of the models provided significant (P < 0.001) correlation of predicted egg laying with observed dates, but varied somewhat from 1.00 in their regression coefficients.
The nonlinear approach gave the best prediction, however there was difficulty in implementing this approach.
The relative merits of each approach are discussed.
Two linear deterministic models, one incorporating a horizontal upper developmental cutoff and one incorporating a vertical upper developmental cutoff were evaluated, as were 2 linear models incorporating a stochastic element and a nonlinear approximation which used developmental rate data directly.
All of the models provided significant (P < 0.001) correlation of predicted egg laying with observed dates, but varied somewhat from 1.00 in their regression coefficients.
The nonlinear approach gave the best prediction, however there was difficulty in implementing this approach.
The relative merits of each approach are discussed.
Authors
Frank G. Zalom, Joseph H. Connell, Walter J. Bentley
Keywords
almond, navel orangeworm, Ameylois transitella, phenology
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