Articles
TWO YEARS EXPERIENCES IN FORECASTING FIRE BLIGHT IN HUNGARY
For the best timing of spraying and the survey of host plants, Maryblyt™ predictive model was operated at 44 localities in 57 apple and pear orchards at the infected areas and in the districts important for growing host plants.
Because of the spread of the pathogen in 1998, blossom blight prediction has been carried out already at 107 localities in 140 apple and pear orchards.
Weather data necessary for prediction were collected from measuring points in, or in close vicinity of phenological observations sites.
Data collected were evaluated and decision on the compulsory treatments were made at the county plant health stations.
Data were evaluated using Billing’s Integrated System (BIS95) as well.
Based on two years experiences, it can be assumed that Maryblyt™ computerized system provides useful guidance for getting daily results about the progress of different infection events including symptom development and for making decision on control.
Infection days in apple and pear predicted by the two models were the same both in 1997 and 1998. The same was true for symptom appearance in the case of apple, but for pear BIS95 signalised earlier symptom development.
In some apple and pear orchards the canker margin symptom appeared earlier than it was predicted by Maryblyt™, possibly due to the extreme weather conditions in 1998. Additional observations are necessary to clear up the role of different factors influencing shoot infection under the climatic conditions of Hungary and to make more reliable forecast of the infection day on quince which is one of the main host of Erwinia amylovora in Hungary.