Articles
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN BERRY FRUIT – A DECISION ANALYSIS APPROACH
Article number
838_19
Pages
115 – 120
Language
English
Abstract
The environmental risks are constantly changing for agribusiness.
Weather risks are a major source of uncertainty.
The occurrence of adverse weather events increased in the last decade and is likely to continue due to climate change.
However, producers should also take account of the economic instability such as price changes, changes in supply networks, and employment and insurance availability.
Assessments of climate change on Croatian agriculture suggest that climate change will have positive effects on the increase in yields and quality of agricultural crops in the continental part of Croatia.
Nevertheless, higher air temperatures and the shortage of water will threaten crops during summer period.
Researches on berry production have not been conduced yet.
The objective of the paper is to assess economic impact of climate variability on berry production, namely strawberry and blackberry, in the continental part of Croatia.
The factors that will be taken into consideration are increase in mean temperatures, changes in precipitation, increase in frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events and greater weather variability (change in beginning and end of growing season). To achieve the mentioned goals, quantitative and qualitative decision management methods will be used.
Approach will be based on the steps in risk management: 1) identify risk, 2) risk Assessment, and 3) select risk management strategies.
Stochastic budgets will encompass uncertain factors like yield, growing and harvesting season, irrigation cost, and prices.
In the scarcity of data sources, base for budgeting was founded on empirical results from previous projects ran by Department of Pomology and experts opinions.
The paper aims to help berry producers to cope with increasing uncertainty related to climate risk by establishing a process of efficient risk management.
Weather risks are a major source of uncertainty.
The occurrence of adverse weather events increased in the last decade and is likely to continue due to climate change.
However, producers should also take account of the economic instability such as price changes, changes in supply networks, and employment and insurance availability.
Assessments of climate change on Croatian agriculture suggest that climate change will have positive effects on the increase in yields and quality of agricultural crops in the continental part of Croatia.
Nevertheless, higher air temperatures and the shortage of water will threaten crops during summer period.
Researches on berry production have not been conduced yet.
The objective of the paper is to assess economic impact of climate variability on berry production, namely strawberry and blackberry, in the continental part of Croatia.
The factors that will be taken into consideration are increase in mean temperatures, changes in precipitation, increase in frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events and greater weather variability (change in beginning and end of growing season). To achieve the mentioned goals, quantitative and qualitative decision management methods will be used.
Approach will be based on the steps in risk management: 1) identify risk, 2) risk Assessment, and 3) select risk management strategies.
Stochastic budgets will encompass uncertain factors like yield, growing and harvesting season, irrigation cost, and prices.
In the scarcity of data sources, base for budgeting was founded on empirical results from previous projects ran by Department of Pomology and experts opinions.
The paper aims to help berry producers to cope with increasing uncertainty related to climate risk by establishing a process of efficient risk management.
Authors
M. Njavro, B. Duralija
Keywords
climate change, risk analysis, simulation model, risk management strategies, berry fruits economics
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