Articles
FORECASTING CULTIVATED AREAS AND PRODUCTION OF CASHEW NUT IN INDIA USING ARIMA MODEL
Article number
1080_36
Pages
281 – 289
Language
English
Abstract
Cashew nut area and production in India data for the period of 1982-83 to 2009-2010 were analyzed by time series methods.
Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data.
Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted.
Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.
ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model were used to forecast cashew nut area and production in India for five leading years.
The results also show cashew nut area forecast for the year 2015 to be about 100,656 thousand ha with upper and lower limit 1107.51 and 905.6 thousand ha, respectively.
The model also shows cashew nut production forecast for the year 2015 to be about
768.71 thousand tons with upper and lower limit 866.80 and 670.62 thousand tons, respectively.
Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data.
Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted.
Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques.
ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model were used to forecast cashew nut area and production in India for five leading years.
The results also show cashew nut area forecast for the year 2015 to be about 100,656 thousand ha with upper and lower limit 1107.51 and 905.6 thousand ha, respectively.
The model also shows cashew nut production forecast for the year 2015 to be about
768.71 thousand tons with upper and lower limit 866.80 and 670.62 thousand tons, respectively.
Publication
Authors
K. Prabakaran, C. Sivapragasam, U. Arulanandu
Keywords
forecasting, area, production, cashew nut, ARIMA, ACF, PACF
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