Articles
Extreme climate and litchi yield: evidence from 2011 to 2019 in China
Article number
1447_6
Pages
51 – 60
Language
English
Abstract
Extreme climate events pose significant threats to tropical fruit production, incurring substantial economic losses.
As a leading global producer, China plays a critical role in tropical fruit supply chains.
This study employs econometric methods to examine the causal relationship between extreme climate indicators and tropical fruit yields in China from 2011 to 2019. We focus on litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), a representative climate-sensitive tropical crop, using county-level panel data from 39 major producing counties.
A two-way fixed-effects Poisson model with robust standard errors is specified to analyze yield responses to extreme climate variables – maximum temperature, minimum temperature, peak wind speed, rainy days, and storm frequency – across six phenological phases: panicle emergence, panicle elongation, flowering, fruit set, fruit maturation, and shoot emergence.
Key findings revealed: 1) Yield reductions are associated with higher maximum temperatures during vegetative flushing, elevated minimum temperatures during fruit maturation, and lower minimum temperatures during panicle elongation; 2) Fewer rainy days during fruit set increase yields; 3) Extreme wind speeds and storm frequency consistently reduce yields.
As a leading global producer, China plays a critical role in tropical fruit supply chains.
This study employs econometric methods to examine the causal relationship between extreme climate indicators and tropical fruit yields in China from 2011 to 2019. We focus on litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), a representative climate-sensitive tropical crop, using county-level panel data from 39 major producing counties.
A two-way fixed-effects Poisson model with robust standard errors is specified to analyze yield responses to extreme climate variables – maximum temperature, minimum temperature, peak wind speed, rainy days, and storm frequency – across six phenological phases: panicle emergence, panicle elongation, flowering, fruit set, fruit maturation, and shoot emergence.
Key findings revealed: 1) Yield reductions are associated with higher maximum temperatures during vegetative flushing, elevated minimum temperatures during fruit maturation, and lower minimum temperatures during panicle elongation; 2) Fewer rainy days during fruit set increase yields; 3) Extreme wind speeds and storm frequency consistently reduce yields.
Authors
F. Yan, W. Tang, W. Qi
Keywords
phenological periods, panel data, two-way fixed-effect, poisson model, agro-product, tropical fruit
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