Articles
BUDBREAK DATE OF CHERRY AND TEMPERATURE SUMS: A MODEL APPROACH
Article number
1020_36
Pages
247 – 256
Language
English
Abstract
The last decades have shown that climatic changes, especially increased tem-peratures, have influenced phenology, i.e., rate of growth and development of plants.
To assess these effects, phenological studies became a topic of special interest and have been undertaken.
Research at Újfehértó, the Research Institute of Fruit Growing and Extension, has utilised a database of meteorological data and the parallel phenological diary for the sour cherry varieties Újfehértói fürtös, Kántor-jánosi and Debreceni bőtermő from 1984-1991. The method of calculating the sum of daily mean temperatures, degree days, is based on the observation that the plants are able to utilise cumulatively – in growth and development – the temperature above a set base temperature.
Our phenology model examined the correlation between the sum of degree days and the date of sprouting (budburst). The base temperature was determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means was most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means were most sensitively expressed in the phenology.
The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy) by optimization as well.
Our phenology model will be suitable for two main purposes: for estimating the time of budburst for the Hungarian region during future decades calculated on the basis of regionally downscaled climate models; on the other hand, by applying our model, the risk of damage caused by spring frosts could be estimated more exactly.
To assess these effects, phenological studies became a topic of special interest and have been undertaken.
Research at Újfehértó, the Research Institute of Fruit Growing and Extension, has utilised a database of meteorological data and the parallel phenological diary for the sour cherry varieties Újfehértói fürtös, Kántor-jánosi and Debreceni bőtermő from 1984-1991. The method of calculating the sum of daily mean temperatures, degree days, is based on the observation that the plants are able to utilise cumulatively – in growth and development – the temperature above a set base temperature.
Our phenology model examined the correlation between the sum of degree days and the date of sprouting (budburst). The base temperature was determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means was most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means were most sensitively expressed in the phenology.
The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of the rest period (endodormancy) by optimization as well.
Our phenology model will be suitable for two main purposes: for estimating the time of budburst for the Hungarian region during future decades calculated on the basis of regionally downscaled climate models; on the other hand, by applying our model, the risk of damage caused by spring frosts could be estimated more exactly.
Publication
Authors
SZ. Persely, T. Szabó, M. Ladányi
Keywords
Prunus cerasus, sour cherry, phenological model, spring frost
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