Climate change impact assessment for Navel oranges: revealing future challenges and opportunities for the industry in New South Wales, Australia

Climate impact assessments enable agricultural industries to understand their future climate challenges and opportunities to enable the development of adaptation strategies.
Previous climate impact assessments in Australia have largely focused on broadacre cropping and biosecurity, however, few studies have focused on horticulture.
The lack of climate impact assessments for horticultural commodities in Australia is a barrier to future productivity, as industries are unaware of potentially important climate effects, potentially undermining investment in appropriate adaptation options.
Future climate suitability for several horticultural industries, including citrus, was modelled using historical data and future climate projections for NSW, Australia.
The resulting climate impact assessment identified several opportunities and challenges.
One opportunity from the warming climate is reduced frost, which is likely to benefit citrus production, especially during late shoot growth and flowering.
Challenges include a probable increase in sunburn-damaged fruit due to an increased number of hot days and increased water requirements due to warmer temperatures and greater rainfall variability.
This climate impact assessment will support the NSW citrus industry’s climate change preparedness and adaptation planning.

XV International Citrus Congress

J. Kelley, B. Ellis, J. Lawson, J. Pardoe, D. Allingham, S. Falivene

climate adaptation, citrus, climate suitability, sunburn, irrigation water requirements

https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2026.1448.56