SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR ESTIMATING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES IN DUTCH BULBGROWING BY RESTRICTING FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES.

The Dutch Government aims in its environmental policy to reduce the input of pesticides and herbicides in agriculture by more than 50% in the period 1998 till 2000. It also intends to force the growers to be more efficient with nutrients and reduce the waste of nitrogen (N) and phosfates (P205) into the surface and ground water.
Restricting the input of nutrients and chemicals will force horticulturists to enormous efforts in adopting new ways of production.
After analysing the present developments in the socio-economic situation, an inventory has been made for the expected developments in the near future.
Based on this information scenarios have been developed, discribing the future development of bulbgrowing nurseries in the "Traditional Bulbdistrict" which is enclosed in the suburban area of the western part of the Netherlands.
In the first scenario there is no change in the limitations for using pesticides and nutrients.
In the last the aims of the Dutch government were taken as limitations.
Based on the scenarios calculations were made to estimate the development of bulbgrowing nurseries.
From these calculations the socio-economic consequences for the bulbdistrict were derived.

XII International Symposium on Horticultural Economics

C.O.N. de Vroomen, N.S.P. de Groot

https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.1995.340.30