Articles
POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE HORTICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN A SMALL AGRICULTURAL REGION
Article number
340_7
Pages
59 – 66
Language
Abstract
As a result of present-day concerns for the agriculture future, the Agricultural Production and Economy division of CEMAGREF, at the Aix-en-Provence center, wished to contribute with research of regional simulation tools presenting a method called "AGREGEDE". The evolution of agricultural production, through linear programming, is studied from simulations conducted on each of the farms of a representative sampling.
Hypotheses of circumstances (variation of the sales price or of any production factor) or of a structural type (modification of production conditions) were tested.
Regional results are obtained by extrapolating results from the farms of the sample, with an extrapolation coefficient.
This enables to portray the regional evolution tendency : surface of the different crops, inputs, variation of the production volume and of farmers gross margin.
Hypotheses of circumstances (variation of the sales price or of any production factor) or of a structural type (modification of production conditions) were tested.
Regional results are obtained by extrapolating results from the farms of the sample, with an extrapolation coefficient.
This enables to portray the regional evolution tendency : surface of the different crops, inputs, variation of the production volume and of farmers gross margin.
This method was applied in a small region in the south of France, in Ardèche and the results obtained may be illustrative.
Authors
G. Giraud
Keywords
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