Articles
THE ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY IN HORTICULTURAL FARM AND WORK MANAGEMENT
The uncertainty about the results makes decisions difficult in the course of production.
Up-to-date mathematical and technical means are now available to solve the problem, yet faulty or uncertain data only result in failure.
- In horticulture, as in agriculture, estimation has long tradition, though it needs experts to have full efficieny.
Estimation, of course, involves considerable subjective elements.
Objectivity is, therefore, aimed at, which is, in this field not easy to attain.
In horticulture, in relation to other fields of economic life, uncertainty is a dominant factor. Let us consider some of its causes.1.1 Horticultural production differs basically from technical production, where the whole process is under control.
In horticulture biological processes are self-governed. We can only start them or stop them without any power to induce considerable changes in their course. Re-environmental factors, which are independent of man.
We can distinguish physical ones (e.g. temperature), chemical ones (nutrient supply), not to neglect biological factors, such as nutrient uptake and utilization, sanitary state.
Uncertainty in production results appears on 3 levels: there is uncertainty in quantity, which dependson plant population and number and size of plant organs we want to use.
There is uncertainty in quality determined by size, firmness, taste, colour and other characters of plant organs.
Finally, there is uncertainty in harvest time, the programming of which is highly influenced by environmental and biological changes.
There is, of course, considerable difference between plants on the 3 levels.
1.2. Production in horticulture means to profit by biological progresses. Our attempts to change or improve them are not always successful, as they are too complicate to understand fully their mechanism and environmental factors also escape our attention. They are, however, of great importance.
They can vary within broad limits.
On the other hand, some change in a single factor can modify the effect of all the others.
It is well known that nutrient uptake is highly influenced by weather and soil conditions, water supply, ratio of nutrient elements, cultural methods.
The whole life cycle of the plant must be considered to