Articles
THE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR YIELD, PRICE AND GROSS INCOME IN THE WALNUT GROWING IN TURKEY (1978-1998)
Article number
544_80
Pages
573 – 583
Language
English
Abstract
Walnut has important place in the nuts production in Turkey.
Yield and price fluctuations sourcing from natural characteristic of agriculture have caused to the instabilities.
The intensity of the fluctuations have become an important uncertainty source for farmers.
On account of this, farmers have confronted risk and uncertainty in the decision and investment for the future.
The main goal of the study is the determination of the yield, price and gross income uncertainty in the interval of 1978 and 1998 of walnut growing in Turkey.
Besides, in the study, the production amount, planted area, export-import of walnut for Turkey and the world were tried to investigate.
In the time series analysis, logaritmic and quadratic functions were used.
In the analysis made for walnut growing in Turkey, the different uncertainties in the yield, price and gross income of the walnut was determined.
The price (12.31%) and income (10.22%) uncertainties of the walnut was found out at higher ratio than that of the yield (8.34%). The reason for this result might be inconsistent economy, high inflation, frequently changing price etc.
The variability and random variability coefficients of the yield, price and gross income are respectively 8.34%, 6.15%; 12.31%, 10.85% and 10.22%, 10.66%. These result have been shown that even though the farmers have the knowledge for the technological and economical progress, especially, the price and gross income have some certain degree of the uncertainty.
However, the uncertainties of yield, price and gross income of the walnut growing in Turkey have at a low level (roughly 10%) of the uncertainty.
Yield and price fluctuations sourcing from natural characteristic of agriculture have caused to the instabilities.
The intensity of the fluctuations have become an important uncertainty source for farmers.
On account of this, farmers have confronted risk and uncertainty in the decision and investment for the future.
The main goal of the study is the determination of the yield, price and gross income uncertainty in the interval of 1978 and 1998 of walnut growing in Turkey.
Besides, in the study, the production amount, planted area, export-import of walnut for Turkey and the world were tried to investigate.
In the time series analysis, logaritmic and quadratic functions were used.
In the analysis made for walnut growing in Turkey, the different uncertainties in the yield, price and gross income of the walnut was determined.
The price (12.31%) and income (10.22%) uncertainties of the walnut was found out at higher ratio than that of the yield (8.34%). The reason for this result might be inconsistent economy, high inflation, frequently changing price etc.
The variability and random variability coefficients of the yield, price and gross income are respectively 8.34%, 6.15%; 12.31%, 10.85% and 10.22%, 10.66%. These result have been shown that even though the farmers have the knowledge for the technological and economical progress, especially, the price and gross income have some certain degree of the uncertainty.
However, the uncertainties of yield, price and gross income of the walnut growing in Turkey have at a low level (roughly 10%) of the uncertainty.
Publication
Authors
Y. Akçay, A. Cicek, M. Uzunoz
Keywords
walnut, forecast, yield, price, gross income, marketing, Turkey
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